Second Quarter 2016
Quarterly Capital Markets Review and Outlook
Projecting 2.0% GDP in 2016
Recent data suggests some signs of a rebound in global activity. A sustainable improvement of financial tensions, the stabilization of commodity prices, and the resilience of U.S, activity will be key for the global economy to gain ground. We project 2.0% U.S. GDP in 2016 Read more >
U.S. GDP Growth Heavily Dependent upon Fourth Quarter Results
First- and second-quarter GDP numbers tend to wash each other out. Because third-quarter growth is typically quite weak, GDP growth for the full year is often determined by fourth-quarter results.Read more >
Earnings Enter a Phase of Heightened Scrutiny
Faced with the potential for the first four-quarter streak of declines since the financial crisis, earnings are under not only heightened scrutiny, but some are even questioning how earnings are being presented. Read more >
Fixed Income Outlook
Too Tight is Not a Mistake the Fed Intends to Make
Financial markets responded positively to Fed Chair Yellen’s inference that the Fed is willing to err on the side of rising inflation and stronger-than-expected growth more so than it is willing to risk an economic slowdown resulting from overly restrictive monetary policy. Read more >
Q&A with BBVA Compass Chief Investment Strategist, Gwynne Shackelford and BWS2 Investment Strategist, Anne-Joëlle Viguier-Galley.
In this edition of the BBVA Compass Market Outlook, Mses. Shackelford and Viguier-Galley examine the unconventional negative interest-rate policy (NIRP) and some of the unintended consequences that makes the monetary tool so controversial. Read more >
BBVA Compass is the trade name for Compass Bank, which is a member of the BBVA Group. Securities products are NOT deposits, are NOT FDIC insured, and are NOT bank guaranteed. May LOSE value, are NOT insured by any federal government agency.
This material contains forward looking statements and projections. There are no guarantees that these results will be achieved.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. No investment strategy, such as asset allocation, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that individual situations can vary. Therefore, the information presented here should only be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice.
Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index.
International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.
Investments in stocks of small companies involve additional risks. Smaller companies typically have a higher risk of failure, and are not as well established as larger blue-chip companies. Historically, smaller-company stocks have experienced a greater degree of market volatility than the overall market average.
Equity investments tend to be volatile and do not involve the guarantees associated with holding a bond to maturity.
In general, the bond market is volatile as prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss.
Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
The investor should note that vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. The investor should be aware of the possible higher level of volatility, and increased risk of default.
Municipal bond offerings are subject to availability and change in price. If sold prior to maturity, municipal bonds may be subject to market and interest risk. An issuer may default on payment of the principal or interest of a bond. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise. Depending upon the municipal bond offered, alternative minimum tax and state/local taxes could apply.
The price of commodities is subject to substantial price fluctuations of short periods of time and may be affected by unpredictable international monetary and political policies. The market for commodities is widely unregulated and concentrated investing may lead to higher price volatility.
Investments in real estate have various risks including possible lack of liquidity and devaluation based on adverse economic and regulatory changes.
Other Sources: Bloomberg; California.gov; Russell.com; First page index returns are calculated on a total return basis using the following indexes: S&P 500 (SPX), MSCI World (MXWO), MSCI Emerging Markets (MXEF), Bloomberg 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Index (USG4TR), Morningstar U.S. Agency Bond TR Index (MSBIUATR), Municipal Bond Buyer 40 Index (BBMIRNEW), Credit Suisse High Yield Index (CSHY), MSCI U.S. REIT Index (RMZ Index).