Friday, 24 March 2017
By Kan Chen and Shushanik Papanyan
With GDP growth slowing to 1.8% as a result of weaker demographics, lower productivity growth, and slower capital accumulation, we explore the question: will the future of U.S. potential growth be gloomy or bright?
Productivity growth, policies to boost the working age population, and stronger investments could be the answer, with the potential to lift GDP growth up to 2.7%. However, if current trends do not reverse and policymakers refuse to act, potential GDP growth could slow down to 1.2%.
As the gross debt-to-GDP ratio steadily rises, should the U.S. worry about its ability to repay debt, cut spending, and raise interest rates?
In this brief, we analyze the trends that will drive the demand and supply for multifamily and single-family housing over the next 10 years.
While the likelihood of a U.S. recession is the highest it’s been since the 2009 downturn, based on a state-by-state assessment, the overall probability remains low.