Wednesday, 1 February 2017
By Amanda Augustine and Boyd Nash-Stacey
In December, activity increased in 44 states, with the strongest gains in the West.
Across the Sunbelt region, activity decelerated despite pickups in the manufacturing, mining, and retail trade sectors. Despite a strong dollar and weak exports, manufacturing activity will benefit from improved domestic demand, and further gains in construction activity will aid the recovery of states such as California and Arizona.
While the likelihood of a U.S. recession is the highest it’s been since the 2009 downturn, based on a state-by-state assessment, the overall probability remains low.
The drop in oil prices and a weakened manufacturing sector suggest a high probability (90%) for Texas recession.